Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate 4.7% is figure in June 2000. The total unemployment percentage in April 2000 is 4.8%. It is due to "
The Monthly Economy Report" of the Japanese government announcement. According to my prospect, for 3-4 years, as the business conditions recedes, the unemployed percentage of Japan will rise to more a high degree from now. Because, the finance anxiety is very big and with the loan hesitation of the bank, a lot of business will fail.As far as finance anxiety isn't canceled, there is not leaping development of the economy activity. The Japanese government tries to invest a tax in one of the major banks now. It seems to mistake this policy completely. The government can not cover the full amount of the bad credit in"19" major banks. Then, this policy is rather not "justice" than the other already bankrupted bank. According to my idea, that the major bank is doing a large amount contribution every year to the "Jimin party" is big cause
It is necessary to improve labor distribution percentage to make expand consumption according to my idea. This policy means lowering the profit percentage of the business as a whole. However, by improving domestic consumption, the stable growth of the Japanese economy can be achieved.
Greatly, it demands that the distribution system in Japan will be reformed. Also, to build the free and just system of the competition, too, is important. It adds that this is the problem that isn't possible to achieve, too.
The Japanese business conditions circulation is approximately 10 years cycle. Now, it is in the wave of "the cycle" in 10 years in the long stagnation. In 3-4, the stagnation condition still will continue. It is different from the common view and according to my idea, the valley of the business conditions in the last time is 1986. This time, it would be in the place to have passed a few years behind of the last valley of the business conditions.
The structure of the Japanese economy is leaving the production of the thing. Therefore, even if the business conditions becomes good, the unemployed percentage falls in the future and haven't been held. The long-range rise tendency with unemployed percentage will fix. But, the production basis is sound. All is a result thing in the cycle and that the unemployed percentage declines gently in future, too, is a law.
Even though, the range of the unemployed person by the Japanese government is very narrow. If saying by the standard of America, it is said to that the unemployed percentage of Japan is equal to or more than twice the present numerical value.
Saturday, August 19, 2000
Yoshimitsu Matsui